Why so many pubs are surprised to be in scope
The instinct most licensees have is that Martyn's Law is for arenas and stadiums, not the local. On an ordinary Tuesday that instinct is right — a pub with thirty people in is nowhere near the threshold. But the Act does not ask how many people are usually in. It asks how many you can reasonably expect to be present at the same time, from time to time. That phrase is doing a lot of work, and it is where a surprising number of pubs cross the line.
“From time to time” means your predictable peaks: the cup final on the big screen, the Friday before Christmas, a popular quiz night, a wake, a stag party that books the back room. If you can reasonably foresee 200 or more people in the building on nights like those, the standard tier applies — even if those nights are a handful of times a year. The test is foreseeability, not frequency.
Crucially, the 200 includes everyone working: bar staff, kitchen, glass collectors, the door team, the DJ. A room that holds 180 customers comfortably can tip over 200 once you add a full rota on your busiest night. This is the single most common reason a pub that feels small turns out to be in scope.